NEW By-election Breakdown 01/02/2018
John Johnston & Sam Webber
| PoliticsHome
PoliticsHome looks at this week's local council by-elections and predicts who's in, who's out, who's lost the plot.
This feature has had several weeks off over the extended Christmas and New Year period but we are thrilled to be back.
Today we make predictions on the two major council by-elections taking place today about as far apart as you can get in England; Falmouth, Cornwall in the south west and Sunderland in the north east.
Cornwall UA, Falmouth Smithick Division (Lab died, 4 Candidates: Con, Lab,Green, Lib Dem)
Election results 2013: Lab 316, Ind 156/115/74, LD 154, Con 130
Election results 2017: Lab 480, Con 291, LD 225, Green 195
This by-election follows the sad death of a Candy Atherton who as well as being a sitting Cornwall councillor at the time of her death in October 2017, was also MP for Falmouth and Camborne from 1997 to 2005.
She famously ousted a certain Seb Coe to win her seat and warm tributes were paid to her at the first PMQs following her death by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and from the Prime Minister, who noted she first entered parliament in the same year as Candy Atherton having both been elected in the 1997 General Election.
Whilst before the 2017 General Election several seats in Cornwall Council had changed hands in by-elections, we do predict that this will remain in Labour hands not least noting the reason for the poll.
Another reason for our Labour Hold prediction is the scoop from the local Cornish Stuff who uncovered that Conservative candidate Richard Cunningham had reportedly been sharing a meme of a man dressed in a Nazi uniform, as well as a number of other unpleasant posts on social media. The posts had all been lovingly curated by someone who had been keeping an eye on Mr Cunningham’s Facebook feed over the years, presumably in anticipation of his attempt to secure high office, and then handed over to the local media. As my dear old Grandmother used to say: ‘Probably best to not share Nazi memes on your Facebook page if you want to be elected someday.’
The Conservative party have graciously accepted that the posts were made in ‘bad taste’, but have offered up the defence that they were merely shared by Cunningham, and were not his own words. Well, I am sure that will put voters minds at rest...
However, it is not all rainbows and unicorns amongst the local Labour and Momentum activists either, who have gotten caught up in some Momentum in-fighting. Chair of Truro and Falmouth Momentum Laura Rogers recently stood down from the party with a parting salvo at Momentum HQ who she accused of ‘installing’ a candidate for the Parliamentary seat against the wishes of the local branch. She blasted senior Momentum figures who she said used ‘dirty tricks’ so that Momentum HQ could impose authoritative top down control on the candidate selection process. Fortunately for the Labour party, the selection of their candidate for this council seat has seemingly passed without drama, and activists from all areas of the party have been out on the campaign trail.
It is worth noting that with 123 members it is one of the largest authorities in the UK, larger even than Birmingham which has 120. It is currently run with a Liberal Democrat and Independent coalition with 38 and 30 seats each. The other parties comprise Conservative (46 seats) Labour (4 seats) and Mebyon Kernow (4 seats).
Prediction: Labour Hold
Sunderland City Council, Pallion Ward (Labour died, 5 candidates: UKIP, Lab, Green, Lib Dem, Con)
Election results 2010: Lab 1866, Con 739, LD 709, BNP 318
Election results 2011: Lab 1688, Con 506, Green 451
Election results 2012: Lab 1541, Con 365, Green 304, LD 101
Election results 2014: Lab 1047, UKIP 659, Con 314, Green 105, LD 67
Election results 2015: Lab 1804, UKIP 1012, Con 554, Green 153, LD 134
Election results 2016: Lab 1046, UKIP 596, Con 261, LD 91, Green 71
We have have a hunch that this contest could provide a serious upset. It is not based on a scientific study of Sunderland psephology, but based on a hot tip and looking at a similar by-election in January 2017 which took place in Sandhill ward in Sunderland which saw the Lib Dems came from a very poor 4th place to take the seat.
The two results in Sandhill for the record were:
2016: Lab 1229, UKIP 579, Con 277, LD 94, Green 59
Jan 2017: LD 824, Lab 458, UKIP 343, Con 184, Green 23
We understand that these figures are virtually identical to the Pallion 2016 votes with Sandhill marginally safer for Labour.
Sunderland Liberal Democrats have apparently been working this ward for some time and have a decent local candidate. We recognise that with only 2 councillors out of 75 on Sunderland City Council that this is something of a long shot but we predict a narrow Lib Dem gain from Labour here.
Worth noting is an excellent example of the plasticity of the Lib Dem colour scheme when it comes to election materials. The usual bile-hued orange has been dumped in exchange for a familiar red colour, likely to appeal to the many Labour voters in the ward. Sneaky Lib Dems back at it again.
If this one goes our way, we will be happy to provide you with our predictions for this weeks lottery numbers.
Prediction: Lib Dem Gain
A massive credit goes to our fellow council by-election fanatics on the Vote UK Forum where we got our previous vote totals from.
So far we have predicted 36 out of 44 results correctly
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