By-election breakdown: the latest local races you need to know about
John Johnston & Sam Webber
4 min read
PoliticsHome's by-election breakdown is back in business. Join us every week for our light-hearted look at who's in, who's out, who's lost the plot.
Aylesbury Vale DC, Haddenham & Stone
4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Grn
2015: Con 2677, 2075, 1681; Grn 1063, 673, 575; Ind 1037, 848; UKIP 1031, 931, 600; LD 771
PoliticsHome’s weekly by-election breakdown returns to cover the only contest happening in the UK this week - in Aylesbury Vale’s Haddenham & Stone ward.
This ward in is the Buckingham constituency of House of Commons Speaker John Bercow.
The Twitter feed of the Buckingham Conservatives certainly does give the impression that the local party is frustrated at having to keep its electoral powder dry at the last three general elections in this seat.
The constituency has witnessed the strange British convention where the principal political parties stand aside to give the sitting Commons Speaker a clear run as an Independent ‘Speaker seeking re-election’.
Only the Green party, UKIP, and various minor party or independent candidates have stood in this constituency since 2005 when Bercow was last elected with a blue rosette on.
In 2017 on witnessing an unusually high level of 1,967 spoilt ballot papers in this seat, Bercow noted that he was "conscious of and sensitive to the strong feeling which exists amongst a great many people of all political persuasions" that the system in the constituency is "less than ideal".
Perhaps echoing an online petition to correct the dearth of party candidates, the local Conservatives are strongly urging voters to back their candidate Mark Bale:
Mr Bale has decided to stand on a traditional platform of vowing to work with his own party, and slagging off people who speed through small villages.
And in a not-very-sly dig at the Green candidate, he vowed not to be a “protestor to shout & complain outside”. Ouch.
But interestingly the Conservatives have decided to gloss over the fact that the last time this ward was up for election in 2015, Mr Bale was himself one of the independents who might perhaps have shouted and complained?
Aylesbury Vale Council has a large Conservative majority and this ward might well return a comfortable Conservative victory, but the Green party is also throwing a lot at the contest.
DUCK POND DISPATCH
Green candidate David Lyons is already an elected Haddenham parish councillor and his campaign has been boosted by a visit from deputy party leader Amelia Womack
Sporting a hefty beard, repping a sweet bluetooth ear piece, bedecked in a green cravat, red braces, and tweed waistcoat, and having a moan about new housing developments, Mr Lyons is sure to go down well with the Green base.
In other news, Buckinghamshire is facing local government changes which were postponed from May 2019 to 1st April 2020 when Aylesbury Vale District Council will be abolished in favour of a new Buckinghamshire unitary.
Whoever wins tonight will only serve for nearly 13 months and barring other deaths or resignations this is likely to be the last ever Aylesbury Vale DC by-election.
Also rans this week from the Liberal Democrats and Labour who are pretty unlikely to pull of a surprise here.
It’s a good chance that this one could come down to the wire with the Greens set to take a hefty bite out of the Tory lead. But we predict the Tories will hold on (just).
PREDICTION: CON HOLD
A massive credit goes to our fellow council by-election fanatics on the Vote UK Forum where we got our previous vote totals from.
