Starmer won’t win on charisma – but nor will Sunak
4 min read
British elections tend to hang on one question: how much is the electorate willing to risk for the sake of change?
After 13 years of Conservative rule and the cost of living crisis still hurting households up and down the country, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is struggling to reverse Labour’s 20-point lead in the polls. It looks likely that 2024 will be a year of change.
Yet, a Labour win is not inevitable. Although it looks set to become the largest party, there is little indication that Keir Starmer has won over an electorate that seems to have more reasons to vote against the Tories than for him. Here may lie the opportunity for a Tory fightback.
Sunak’s promise of effective leadership could easily be undone if he fails to live up to his own ambitious targets
Admittedly, the path to a Conservative victory looks narrow with Boris Johnson’s red wall strategy crumbling in the North and the Lib Dems seemingly making inroads in the constituencies won by David Cameron in the South and South West. As such, the Tories are in danger of sacrificing the gains of two previously successful election strategies. To make matters worse, Labour looks likely to benefit from the SNP implosion in Scotland.
Sunak may have steadied the economy and brought his party back from the brink but his promise of effective leadership, undermined of late by the disaster of Raac, could easily be further undone if he fails to live up to his own ambitious targets. This currently seems to be the case: growth is measly, debt is increasing, inflation remains stubbornly above the two per cent target, and reducing NHS waiting times and the number of small boats looks like a pipe dream.
What is Labour up to? Until recently, its strategy was to broadly echo Conservative policy, especially on the economy, to avoid handing them wedge issues. Recent forays into EU and immigration policy are likely to encourage a return to this more cautious strategy – relentlessly focusing attention of the lack of Tory delivery. But this is not a risk-free strategy. By failing to set out their own decisive stall, the danger is that Labour fails to inspire the sort of swing it needs to govern with an articulated mandate.
The Tories can exploit this weakness. But first they need to pivot from focusing on (failed) targets to presenting a long-term plan to restore economic stability and growth. Then, they can start fostering a sense of fear of changing course with Labour: “You don’t know what you’re getting with Starmer.”
Another trick is to go local where possible. The narrow Tory win in the recent Uxbridge by-election suggests that strong campaigns fought on local issues can be powerful – as well as less likely to create conflict between different target groups.
That said, the Tories should watch out for Labour baiting them into creating risky wedge issues that could damage the long-term future of the party. Cash-strapped families might welcome Sunak’s scaling back of his net zero policies. But the government should be wary of relinquishing the green agenda to Labour, a cause which has strong national resonance, especially in the minds of the young.
Starmer won’t win on charisma – but nor will Sunak. We are heading into a contest between two caretaker leaders, who have each failed to make a personal mark on British politics. But at least Sunak has proved to be a reliable leader.
With both contenders offering a similar set of economic policies, it could come down to the one with a track record against the other whose intentions are largely unknown. Sunak would do well to capitalise on this ambiguity. I can’t help but wonder whether we deserve to be offered more of a choice. As for British voters, they must decide if Starmer is worth the gamble.
Baroness Fall, Conservative peer and former deputy chief of staff to David Cameron
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